POVERTY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Brief Introduction:-
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)i Working Group’s Fifth Report; Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, predicts an average global temperature increase of 1-3.5ºC over the next 100 years.
 It is known that both temperature increases and precipitation changes will vary from region to region, affecting higher and lower latitudes differently. Due to these differential effects, developing countries are likely to suffer more from the economic impacts of climate change, as well as being the least able to adapt to new climatic conditions.
 Changes will be brought about with regard to the incidence of natural disasters such as droughts and floods, agricultural production, fisheries and marine life, water resource availability, industry and human health.
 Given the lack of national research on climate change, which has been identified by developing country negotiators as an obstacle to their task.
Natural Disasters and Sea Level Rise (SLR):-
The impact of rising temperatures on sea levels and the occurrence of natural disasters like floods and cyclones. It will show that sea level rises and associated weather events will have diverse and widespread impact but that the knock-on effects will be felt disproportionately by poor countries and by poorer communities in these countries.
Impacts:-
Impact of rising temperature
The IPCC Report predicts that global warming resulting from carbon emissions will cause a rise in sea levels and may lead to an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Although no definite predictions exist as to the exact magnitude, timing and distribution of sea level rise, most estimates foresee that an increase of 1.5- 4.5 C will lead to an increase of 15 –95cm, with 50cm being the best estimate (IPCC 2001). Increased temperatures contribute to SLR in three ways:
 Heating leads to the thermal expansion of oceans and thus an increase in volume;
 Higher temperatures cause mountain caps and polar glaciers to melt and add to oceans’ volume;
 Warmer seas cause coral bleaching, which stagnates coral growth, preventing it from fulfilling it natural protector role accommodate rising seas. (IPCC 2001)
Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Natural Disasters
Coastal areas are most at risk to the changes outlined above. Increased sea-levels will bring salinisation and an intrusion of seawater into freshwater sources, flooding and loss of land, erosion, loss of wetlands and mangroves and loss of soil fertility. Changes in temperature will alter ocean circulation patterns, vertical mixing of water and wave patterns which will impact on marine productivity, availability of nutrients and disturb the structure of marine and coastal ecosystems (IPCC 2001). Whilst there is no data on the frequency of disasters due to climate change, Jepma et al (1998) estimate that with a 70cm SLR the number of people at risk of annual flooding could increase from 46 million to 90 million. Furthermore greater wind intensities in cyclones will damage buildings, crops, forestry, natural habitat and thus ecosystems, housing and vital physical infrastructure.
Over half the world’s populations as well as most of the fertile lands and urban dwellings are located in coastal and delta regions where the changes outlined above will occur (GEF 2000, IFRC 1999, IFRC 2000)ii . The impact on physical infrastructure and human livelihoods will therefore be numerous and widespread.
 Firstly these changes will bring loss of life, as floods, storms and cyclones cause drowning and the spread of disease (cholera, dysentery, malaria and yellow fever) and increase the chances of famine in areas with inadequate coping systems (Blaikie 1994).
 Loss of livelihood is a further and more widespread impact of weather changes. The salinisation, flooding or complete innondation of agricultural lands or urban industry will destroy vital assets and resources for survival (OECD 2000)iii .
 SLR and increased natural disasters will destroy infrastructure vital for economic development like ports, quays and sewer systems, as well as shelter.
Vulnerability
Before outlining how and why poorer countries and communities are more vulnerable to climate change, it is useful to provide a definition of this concept. Blaikie (1994) describes vulnerability as the characteristics of a person or a group to anticipate cope resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard. On a national level, vulnerability manifests itself in poorer countries due to a lack of resources and capacity to respond. At the community level class, caste, gender, ethnicity, age, level of education and access to resources all determine vulnerability (Blaike1994, IPCC 2001, Warrick and Rahman 1992, Adger and Kelly 2001).
Poorer nations are disproportionately vulnerable to disasters and hence to the effects of climate change for a number of reasons.
 The ability to adapt and cope with weather hazards depends on economic resources, infrastructure, technology, and social safety nets. (IPCC 1995).
 For many countries, climate change is only one of the many environment problems they confront. Many are already under pressure from population growth, rapid urbanization and resource depletion, making them vulnerable to the further challenges thrown up by climate change. (IPCC 2001, Jepma et al 1996)
The Vulnerability of the Poorest- Disaster Preparedness
Poor communities are also more vulnerable to extreme weather events, like those associated with climate change. Location, lack of services and infrastructure and poor building structures all increase the vulnerability to flooding, storm surges and cyclonic wind and rain.
 In LDCiv cities in developing countries the poorest live in unplanned squatter dwellings, often located in flood plains which represent the only available place or a source of fertile agricultural land. For example, in Bangladesh, 15% of total land is subject to flooding and is disproportionately occupied by people living in a marginal existence (IPCC 2001).
 Poorer settlements often lack the infrastructure of fire services, Early Warning Systems (EWS), drains, etc which help cope with a disaster (IFRC 1999, Morris et al 2002, Bankoff 1999, Chowdhury 1996, Olsthoorn et al 1999).
 Finally, the poor do not have the resources to invest in disaster proof buildings which increase the risk of them losing their shelter.
The Vulnerability of the Poorest – Recovery
Poorer communities also have limited means to cope with the losses and damage inflicted by natural disasters. Lack of insurance, savings or credit make it almost impossible to replace or compensate for the numerous things lost or destroyed, including houses, livestock, food reserves, household items and tools (IPCC 2001, Blaikie 1994). Many of these effects contribute to long-term vulnerability leaving people more at risk to the next disaster. (i.e. a flood may reduce wage earning opportunities which prevents people from paying inflated prices for food when another flood strikes). Specific examples from developing countries further highlight the disproportionate risk and danger faced by the poor. In the 1977 floods in Andhra Pradesh, India the deaths were 23-27% for small farmers and fisherman, and there was a 3% death rate for large farmers and local level officials (Winchester 1986).
Developing countries face significant challenges to adapt to and cope with climate change. Not only are they likely to disproportionately feel the effects, but a large proportion of their population are highly vulnerable to SLR and natural disasters. In view of this, developing countries must have specific information on their vulnerability to present at climate change negotiations.
Livelihoods
The majority of studies simulating the effects of climate change on agriculture, fisheries and health have been carried out for industrialised countries, largely ignoring specific impacts in the developing world. However more recent studies have begun to highlight particular regional and sub-regional effects and some developing countries have also presented their own analysis of the impacts of climate change in their national communications to the UNFCCC (2001)v . In particular developing countries have signalled agriculture, food security and water resources as issues of foremost importance.
A general summary of climate change impacts is presented below, along with an analysis of how it could affect the livelihoods of the most vulnerable populations within developing countries.
Impacts
(i) Food security
Climate change may affect agriculture through:
 Changes in temperature and precipitation,
 Changes in soil moisture and soil fertility,
 Changes in the length of growing season and
 An increased probability of extreme climatic conditions
Global climate models (GCMs) predict that aggregate changes in world food production are likely to be small. However there is general agreement that climate change may lead to significant reductions in agricultural productivity in developing countries.
 Food Security and Water Resources
Water availability is a key component of food security; given the reliability of water supplies is perhaps the single most important factor in food production. In general climate change is expected to lead to more precipitation, but much of this increased wetness may not end up where it is most needed. Arid and semi-arid regions are likely to suffer even more reduced rainfall and increased evaporation. In this respect, climate change is an added risk to these regions which have already been undergoing a process of increased desertification and land degradation, caused both by overexploitation and inappropriate land-use as well as general climatic variations. This is already the subject of great international concern, beginning with the first UN conference on desertification held in 1977 and culminating in the adoption of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in 1996. Currently it is estimated that 250 million people are directly affected by desertification and that 1 billion people in over 100 countries are at risk.
(ii) Fisheries
Marine fisheries supply an important proportion of the world food supply and may represent a much greater importance for local or regional food security in developing countries where fish provides an important source of protein. Several major ocean fisheries have already been subject to collapse and almost all of the 200 main fisheries monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are fully exploited (UNEP 1994)vi .
Scientific assessments have predicted changes in the oceans’ makeup, given increased atmospheric temperatures. Clearly it is more difficult to monitor the marine environment in the same way as crop yields can be investigated, a task further complicated by the fact that fish populations are affected by many natural factors (including wind speed, currents, temperature and salinity). However weather events such as El Niño have shown us how fish populations can be reduced by changing water temperature in upwelling regions. The IPCC (2001) predicts changes in the abundance, distribution and species composition of some fish populations, as well as the collapse of some fisheries, although the expansion of others is also a possibility.
(iii) Overall Economic Impacts
It is necessary to look at the general structure of developing countries economies to understand overall economic impacts. The majority of studies have focused on the issue of food security, generally predicting overall negative impacts for developing countries. Overall exposure to risk depends on a detailed analysis of sectors such as agricultural production, fisheries and industry, all of which are sensitive to climate change. Agricultural commodities often make up a large part of developing countries economies, and more recent developing country analysis have paid particular attention to the effects of climate change on the following:
 cash crops (such as coffee, tea and cotton)
 livestock
 wildlife and tourism
 horticultural crops
Another fundamental part of any analysis on the economic impact of climate change needs to include an investigation of water resource availability.
(iv) Health
The IPCC (2001) has stated that “overall negative health impacts are anticipated to outweigh positive health impacts from climate change”. Of particular relevance to developing countries are health impacts from the spread of vector borne diseases, particularly malaria and dengue, health problems related to water shortages and those related to under-nutrition.
 Infectious diseases
Vector borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, mosquito borne (and tick borne) encephalitis and Lyme disease are all affected by changes in climate. Warmer temperatures and increased humidity are general factors which will encourage the mosquito transmission. Malaria is currently one of the most important public health problems of the developing world with around 2.5 million deaths occurring in a year mostly in children (DFID, 2002)vii . In general vector borne diseases are expected to expand to cover new areas in the subtropics, including higher elevations and urban areas. The spread of cholera may also increase due to ocean warming.
 Water related health impacts
Currently 1 billion people live without access to safe water and sanitation. Increasing water shortages caused by global warming could lead to further declining hygiene and sanitation, a spread of water borne diseases such as cholera and typhoid and a rise in diarrheal and skin diseases and other water related conditions.
 Under-nutrition
The effects of food insecurity have been well documented in the developing world. It is commonly accepted that a lack of nutrition at a very early age affects children’s height and intellectual development as well as resulting in low productivity in adults. Malnutrition also increases the susceptibility to infection.
Conclusion
This report provides evidence that the impacts of climate change in developing countries could be dramatic, particularly with regard to marginal regions and highly vulnerable poor communities. While GHG emission and global warming is largely a result of the activities of the industrialized countries, it is now a well documented fact that the ramifications will be largely felt in developing countries, where the livelihoods of the poor are severely at risk. Whilst the international community, and industrialized countries have recognized the need to act, both to reduce GHG emissions and help developing countries adapt, the actual mechanisms and assistance offered by the international community to date have not come close to matching up to the needs and risks involved. In particular issues such reducing vulnerability and helping the poorest and most marginalized communities to adapt have been almost absent from the climate change agenda. Instead mechanisms have been largely directed at addressing the issue of the mitigation of GHG emissions. Whilst this is obviously a necessary environmental solution, it does not address the pressing issue of climate change and poverty. Linked with this is the need to research pro-poor climate change projects with the aim of devising a wide range of initiatives. At this the stage, the most common pro-poor climate projects are community forestry and rural electrification. Whilst these projects may prove effective a broader range is required.
Thanks
S. M. Zaki Ahmad
i IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ii GEF Global Environmental Facility, IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
iii OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation andnDevelopment
iv LDC least developed countries
v UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
vi UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
vii DFID Department for International Development